On january29,2020, the US Mexico Canada agreement (usmca) was signed by President trump of the United States, and officially became a law and completed the approval process of the United States. The agreement has completed Mexico's legal ratification process last year and will enter into force later this year, until it is officially approved by Canada. The trilateral trade agreement, commonly known as NAFTA 2.0, is a landmark achievement of the trump government. The office of the United States trade representative said it was a "high-standard trade agreement that would make the market in the region more free, trade fairer and strong economic growth".
Although the White House said the Medusa agreement has comprehensively revised the NAFTA it replaced, there are many provisions in the Medusa agreement that have been repeated without any changes. For example, there has been no change in tariff free treatment for industrial goods and textiles, temporary entry of business people, and review and dispute resolution procedures for anti-dumping and countervailing duties. Other remaining terms are subject to minor changes, including tariff refund, commodity processing fees, origin (origin) procedures and customs measures.
However, the Mexico Canada agreement does contain some particularly important provisions. Most notably, under the new agreement, NAFTA remains basically unchanged, although many products will be more difficult to obtain tariff free treatment. The US negotiators have called for stricter rules of origin (source of origin) to improve North American value and limit the use of foreign parts, including those made in Hong Kong and the mainland of China. These rules may inhibit Hong Kong and Mainland China exports to North America, including certain textile materials, auto parts and other products.
When J. Nicole biens Collinson, President of international trade and government relations, Sandler, international trade law firm, Travis & Rosenberg, recently received a visit by Chen Yongjian, assistant chief economist for global markets of Hong Kong Trade Bureau, he provided advice on the short-term and long-term impact of the American Mexico agreement on North American supply chain and how Hong Kong and Mainland China companies respond to these changes.
Chen: what important new provisions have been formulated in the American Mexico Canada agreement? The full text of the agreement was published in November 2018, and has there been any significant changes since then?
Collinson: Mexico, Canada and the United States signed the Mexico Canada agreement on December 10, 2019, which revised the main contents of the original version signed on November 30th, 2018.
Specifically, the revised original text mainly covers the following aspects: (1) dispute resolution, (2) labor and environmental provisions, (3) intellectual property rights, and (4) the rules of origin of automobile and automobile parts for steel and aluminum.
(1) Dispute resolution
The final Medusa agreement does not change the dispute resolution mechanism between investors and countries, as well as the dispute settlement system of anti-dumping and countervailing tariff in Chapter 19 of 2018 version of the agreement.
However, the final text of disputes between countries has deleted the provisions that allow the respondent to prevent the establishment of dispute settlement group, and eliminate the loopholes in NAFTA dispute settlement system for a long time. In addition, the final text establishes a new rule of evidence in the rules of procedure of the panel of experts, which is the first sight in the trade agreements signed by the United States. Finally, the revised provision cancels the advisory body "Free Trade Commission" as the intermediate step in resolving disputes.
(2) Labor and environment
The revision of the medoga agreement is of great help to improve labour supervision and law enforcement. Mexico is committed to major labour reform and respect for the rights and interests of workers such as collective bargaining, while the United States will establish a cross sectoral labor commission to monitor the implementation and maintenance of their labor obligations under the Mexico Mexico agreement and Mexican labor reform. The United States also calls for enforcement action on violations of such labor obligations. In addition, to actively monitor the protection of Mexican workers' rights and interests, the United States will establish an independent Mexican labor expert committee and forced labor law enforcement working group as the main supervisory body, and will appoint up to 5 labor commissioners to provide "technical assistance" to Mexico.
The revised medoga agreement assumes that violation of labor rights and interests will affect trade and investment, while the party charged with violating the labor provisions of the medoga agreement shall bear the burden of proof and provide the opposite evidence. The agreement also introduced a new "quick response" dispute resolution procedure to strengthen labor law enforcement mechanisms to address violations of labor rights and interests in the areas of collective bargaining and freedom of association of individual facilities in specific industries. The United States has not yet established these procedures, but the Mexico Canada agreement implementation act will establish mechanisms to provide resources to the public to deal with possible violations of labor rights and interests in the country or specific facilities of the agreement. The implementation act allocates funds to send five additional U.S. personnel to the U.S. consulate in Mexico to deal with labor issues.
In terms of environment, the revised Medusa agreement has joined major commitments to expand its coverage, implementation and supervision functions. The agreement requires the parties to adopt, maintain and implement seven multilateral environmental agreements and consider adding other agreements in the future. The revised medoga agreement also uses the same assumption as a dispute over violations of labor rights that environmental violations affect trade and investment unless the opposite evidence can be provided in response.
Like labor law enforcement, the United States will establish a cross sectoral environmental commission to monitor compliance with the environmental obligations of the medoga agreement and to require enforcement in the event of violations. The United States will have environmental specialists in Mexico City to monitor compliance. The mega Implementation Act also establishes mechanisms and provides resources to support environmental commitments under the MEDC agreement, including the authorization of the North American Development Bank to support project financing related to environmental infrastructure.
(3) Intellectual property
The revised agreement cancels the 10-year data exclusive period for the unified implementation of biological drugs by all parties. In addition, the original medoga agreement contains patent protection for new uses, new methods or processes of known products, but has been cancelled by the amendment protocol. In addition, several provisions contained in the current U.S. legislation have been added to the Mexico Canada agreement to promote the development of generic drugs.
(4) Rules of origin of automobile and auto parts
The import of automobile and auto parts without tariff must meet the requirements of the rules of origin in Chapter IV of the American Mexico Canada agreement. According to the original version of the American Mexico agreement, 75 per cent of the automobile or auto parts must be native to North America and 40-45 per cent of the vehicle must be produced in places where the average employee's hourly salary is at least $16. The revised provisions set higher standards for the production of steel and aluminium content, requiring that at least 70 per cent of these metals be "molten and formed" in North America. The new regulation has a transition period of 7 years for steel, and 10 years for aluminum.
Chen: what are the effects of these new provisions on Hong Kong's exports to North America?
Collinson: the existing supply chain may be most affected, mainly in the automotive sector. The rules have been changed. The original American Mexico Canada agreement divides parts into three categories: core, main and auxiliary. Each has different regional value content requirements, which are applicable to passenger vehicles and light trucks to different extent. For example, core components must meet 75 percent of the regional value content, with 70 per cent of the main components and 65 per cent for auxiliary components. The regional value content requirements of heavy trucks vary. The final result may be that items purchased from mainland China or Hong Kong based on the calculation of regional value content in the past are no longer sufficient to be considered qualified parts.
The revised Medusa agreement further tightened the rules of origin of vehicles, adding that 70% of steel and aluminum of automobiles must be originated in North America to receive tariff free treatment. The amendment states that steel must be melted in North America to be original from the seventh year of the agreement. The corresponding provisions for aluminium are 10 years after the agreement comes into force.
Compliance managers at American automakers have begun working with engineers and designers to ensure that they are aware of the regional value requirements that the finished vehicle must meet when developing new ideas, parts or components. The degree of compliance and development tightness has never been. Plus some products must be produced by workers who pay $16 an hour, which may also affect the place of production of some products. Therefore, for suppliers in mainland China and Hong Kong, the supply chain of these products may disappear or shrink.
Chen: the Mexico Canada agreement contains an unprecedented provision that is considered to be an obstacle to the final free trade agreement between Canada and / or Mexico and China. What is the content of this clause?
Collinson: the article of concern is article 32.10: free trade agreements for non market economy countries. As can be seen only in the title, the article aims to curb the trend of the signing of free trade agreements between the two North and south United States neighbours. There are few real non market economies in the world. Generally speaking, Canada, the United States, Mexico, Germany and the United Kingdom are considered market economies, and the price of goods is determined by supply and demand. There is no internationally recognized definition of non market economy. The United Nations Conference on Trade and development, the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund have different definitions.
The Mexico Canada agreement does not define what is called "non market economy". Many countries have certain national control over certain parts of industry and economy, which belong to "mixed economy". This applies to some industries in China that are not controlled by the government and are part of the market economy. However, it is clear that the United States is targeting China in this clause, because the United States sees China as a non market economy, especially in anti-dumping and countervailing cases.
Therefore, although the parties had initially interpreted each other and were ambiguous, in essence, the article was intended to require Mexico and Canada to consult other members before negotiating free trade agreements with countries such as China. Additional advice is required before a free trade agreement is reached with non market economies. If the other two countries have a decision, the trilateral agreement can be terminated within six months and the agreement can be implemented bilaterally.
This clause allows two members to terminate the agreement quickly (under the general termination clause, this will be gradual within 10 years). However, it is worth noting that this article clearly sets out the goal of the trump government for future agreements, namely, that countries have to choose whether to sign free trade agreements with the United States or with non market economies such as China, and cannot both.
China has signed free trade agreements with ASEAN, Australia, Chile, Costa Rica, Georgia, South Korea, New Zealand, Singapore, Iceland, Pakistan, Peru and Switzerland, and is also a member of the Asia Pacific Trade Agreement, and similar arrangements exist between the mainland and Hong Kong and Macao. The United States has signed free trade agreements with Australia, Chile, Costa Rica, South Korea, Singapore and Peru. The agreements between the countries and the United States are reported to be "non retroactive", but the situation is not fully clear.
Chen: how should Hong Kong or mainland Chinese companies respond to the US Mexico Canada agreement? What are your suggestions?
Collinson: some changes to the agreement could benefit the consignors in mainland China and Hong Kong. For example, in the area of clothing, rules of origin for lining fabrics have been opened. Previously, all visible linings of clothing had to come from NAFTA members. This rule brings some creative designs, such as men's suits, sleeves and sleeves with contrasting fabrics, while visible linings match the jacket fabric. The rules of origin for footwear and travel goods remain unchanged and suppliers can continue to benefit.
The overall micro licensing level for all goods has increased from 7% to 10%. The level of micro licensing has been improved to allow up to 10 per cent of the products from other countries to be used.
Hong Kong and mainland Chinese companies can also consider Mexico as another production base to move their operations to the country. The main content of the products can be purchased from Hong Kong or mainland China, while substantive work is carried out in Mexico to meet the new requirements of the more stringent regional value content of the American Mexico Canada agreement.
Another possible situation is that enterprises may think that rules of origin are too complex to achieve compliance, especially in the automotive industry. Large car factories may consider the tariff on passenger vehicles to be low, only 2.5 per cent, acceptable and therefore carry out production activities in countries with lower wages (no $16 per hour) and where there is no local requirement for core, major or auxiliary parts. Whether this will happen is uncertain, but Hong Kong traders still have a lot of opportunities to participate in these production activities in some way to reduce the adverse impact of the American Mexico Canada agreement on the business.
2020年1月29日，《美墨加协定》(US-Mexico-Canada Agreement，简称USMCA)获美国总统特朗普签署，正式成为法律，完成美国的批准程序。协定已于去年完成墨西哥的法律批准程序，待加拿大正式认可，便可于今年稍后时间生效。这项三边贸易协定俗称《北美自由贸易协定2.0》(NAFTA 2.0)，是特朗普政府一项具里程碑意义的成就。美国贸易代表办公室表示，这是一项「高标准的贸易协定，能令区内市场更自由，贸易更公平，经济强劲增长」。
尽管白宫表示，《美墨加协定》全面修订了它所取代的《北美自由贸易协定》，但是实际上《美墨加协定》有许多条款都重复了旧协定，没有任何改动。例如，在工业品和纺织品的免关税待遇、商界人士临时入境，以及反倾销和反补贴税事宜的审查和争议解决程序方面，均没有改变。其他沿用的条款改动很小，包括退还关税、商品加工费、原产地(产地来源)程序和海关措施等。
然而，《美墨加协定》确实包含一些特别重要的条款。最值得注意的是，根据新协定，北美自由贸易区基本保持不变，不过许多产品将较难获得免关税待遇。美国谈判代表要求实施更严格的原产地规则(产地来源规则)，以提高北美的价值含量，并限制外国零部件的使用，包括在香港和中国内地制造的零部件。这些规则可能会抑制香港和中国内地对北美的出口，包括某些纺织物料、汽车零部件以及其他产品。
国际贸易法律事务所Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg国际贸易与政府关系部总裁J. Nicole Bivens Collinson最近接受香港贸发局环球市场助理首席经济师陈永健访问时，就《美墨加协定》对北美供应链的短期和长期影响，以及香港和中国内地公司如何应对这些改变提供意见。
陈：《美墨加协定》制订了什么重要的新条款？协定全文于2018年11月公布，之后有没有重大更改？
Collinson：2019年12月10日，墨西哥、加拿大与美国签署《美墨加协定》，修订了2018年11月30日所签原版文本的主要内容。
具体而言，所修订的原版文本主要内容涉及以下方面：(1)争议解决，(2)劳工和环境条款，(3)知识产权，以及(4)汽车和汽车零部件原产地规则中对钢和铝的规定 。
(1)争议解决
最终的《美墨加协定》未有改变该协定2018年版第19章有关投资者与国家间的争议解决机制，以及反倾销和反补贴关税争议解决制度。
但是，对国与国之间的争议，最终文本删除了容许答辩方阻止成立争议解决小组的条文，消除《北美自由贸易协定》争议解决制度长期存在的漏洞。此外，最终文本在《专家小组议事规则》内设立新的证据规则，这在美国所签的贸易协定中属于首见。最后，修订后的条文取消顾问机构「自由贸易委员会」作为解决争议的中间步骤。
(2)劳工和环境
修订《美墨加协定》，对改善劳工监督和执法情况大有帮助。墨西哥承诺推行重大的劳工改革，尊重集体谈判等工人权益，而美国将建立一个跨部门的劳工委员会，以监督在《美墨加协定》和墨西哥劳工改革下两国履行及维护其劳动义务。美国还要求对违反此类劳动义务的行为采取执法行动。此外，为积极监督墨西哥工人权益所获的保障，美国将另外设立独立的墨西哥劳工专家委员会和强迫劳动执法工作小组，作为主要的监督机构，并会任命多达5名劳工专员，向墨西哥提供「技术援助」。
经修订的《美墨加协定》假定违反劳工权益会影响贸易和投资，而被指控违反《美墨加协定》劳工规定的一方，须负起举证责任，提出相反证据。协定还引入新的「快速反应」争议解决程序来加强劳工执法机制，以解决特定行业的个别设施在集体谈判和结社自由方面违反劳工权益的行为。美国尚未建立这些程序，不过《美墨加协定实施法案》将建立机制，向公众提供资源，以对付《美墨加协定》国家或特定设施可能发生违反劳工权益的行为。《实施法案》拨出资金，额外在墨西哥的美国领事馆派驻5名美国人员，专门处理劳工问题。
环境方面，经修订的《美墨加协定》加入重大承诺，扩大协定的覆盖范围、执行力度和监督职能。协定要求各方通过、维护和实施7项多边环境协议，并在将来考虑增加其他协议。经修订的《美墨加协定》也采用与违反劳工权益争议相同的假定，即环境违规行为会影响贸易和投资，除非回应方能提出相反证据。
与劳工执法一样，美国将设立跨部门的环境委员会，以监督各国对《美墨加协定》环境义务的遵守情况，并在出现违规情况时要求执法。美国将在墨西哥城派驻负责环境的专员，以监督合规情况。《美墨加协定实施法案》还设立机制并提供资源，支持《美墨加协定》下的环境承诺，包括授权北美开发银行支持与环境基础设施相关的项目融资。
(3)知识产权
经修订的协定取消各方对生物药品统一实施的10年数据专有期。另外，原版《美墨加协定》包含对已知产品的新用途、新方法或新工艺的专利保护，但已被《修正议定书》取消。此外，美国现行法例中包含的若干条款已添加到《美墨加协定》中，以促进仿制药的开发。
(4)汽车和汽车零部件的原产地规则
免关税进口汽车和汽车零部件，必须符合《美墨加协定》第四章的原产地规则要求。根据《美墨加协定》原版文本，汽车或汽车零部件的75%必须在北美原产，而且汽车须有40-45%含量在雇员平均时薪至少16美元的地方生产。经修订的条款设定更高的标准，订明钢和铝含量的生产方法，要求这些金属至少70%在北美「熔铸」(melted and poured)。这项新规定对钢有7年的过渡期，铝则是10年。
陈：这些新条款对香港向北美洲的出口有何影响？
Collinson：现有供应链可能受到最大影响，主要是汽车业供应链。规则已有所改变，原版《美墨加协定》把零部件分为「核心」、「主要」和「辅助」等3种，各有不同的区域价值含量(regional value content)要求，不同程度地适用于载客车辆和轻型货车。例如，核心零部件必须满足75%的区域价值含量，主要零部件为70%，而辅助零部件则是65%。重型货车的区域价值含量要求则有所不同。最终结果可能是，根据以往方法计算区域价值含量而从中国内地或香港采购的物品，不再足以视为合格的零部件。
经修订的《美墨加协定》进一步收紧汽车的原产地规则，增加一项规定，即汽车70%的钢和铝必须在北美原产才可获得免关税待遇。修订订明，从协定的第七年开始钢必须在北美熔铸才属原产。铝的相应规定是协定生效后10年。
美国汽车制造商的合规经理已开始跟工程师和设计师一起工作，确保他们在开发新的意念、零部件或组件时，留意成品车辆必须达到的区域价值含量要求。这种合规与开发紧扣的程度，过去从未有过。加上有些产品必须由时薪16美元的劳工生产，也可能会影响某些产品的生产地点。故此，对中国内地和香港供应商来说，这些产品的供应链可能会消失或缩小。
陈：《美墨加协定》包含一项前所未有的条款，被认为可能成为加拿大及/或墨西哥最终与中国达成自由贸易协定的障碍。这项条款的内容究竟是甚么？
Collinson：引起关注的条款是第32.10条：非市场经济国家自由贸易协定。仅从标题可见，这项条款旨在遏制美国南北两个邻国签署自由贸易协定的趋势。世界上真正的非市场经济体甚少。一般而言，加拿大、美国、墨西哥、德国和英国被视为市场经济体，货品的价格由供需决定。非市场经济没有国际公认的定义。联合国贸易和发展会议、世界贸易组织以及国际货币基金组织都有不同的定义。
《美墨加协定》没有界定何谓「非市场经济」。许多国家对工业和经济的某些部分实施一定的国家控制，属于「混合经济」。这种说法适用于中国某些不受政府控制且属于市场经济一部分的行业。然而，显而易见，美国是以此条款针对中国，因为美国将中国视为非市场经济，尤其是在反倾销和反补贴案件中。
因此，虽然起初各方各自解读，意义含糊不清，但实质上，该条款旨在要求墨西哥和加拿大在与中国等国家谈判自由贸易协定之前先要咨询其他成员。在与非市场经济体达成并签订自由贸易协定之前，还须额外进行咨询。若其他两国有了决定，可以在6个月内终止三边协定，改为双边实施该协定。
该条款允许两个成员快速终止协定(在一般终止条款下，这会在10年内逐步进行)。然而，值得注意的是，这项条款明确提出特朗普政府对未来协定的目标，就是各国须作出选择：是与美国签订自由贸易协定，还是与中国等非市场经济体签订，不能两者兼得。
中国已与东盟、澳洲、智利、哥斯达黎加、格鲁吉亚、韩国、新西兰、新加坡、冰岛、巴基斯坦、秘鲁和瑞士签署自由贸易协定，也是《亚太贸易协定》成员，而内地与香港和澳门也有类似安排。美国已与澳洲、智利、哥斯达黎加、韩国、新加坡和秘鲁签署自由贸易协定。据报道，这些国家与美国签订的协定属于「不溯及既往」，但情况尚未完全清楚。
陈：香港或中国内地公司应该如何应对《美墨加协定》，你有何建议？
Collinson：协定的一些改变可能使中国内地和香港的付货人受益。例如，服装方面，关于衬里布料的原产地规则已开放。以前，服装所有可见的衬里必须来自《北美自由贸易协定》成员。这个规则带来一些创意设计，例如男士西装外套，袖子的衬里用上对比明显的布料，而可见衬里则与外套布料匹配。鞋类和旅行用品的原产地规则保持不变，供应商可以继续受益。
所有货品的总体微量许可水平从7%提高到10%。微量许可水平有所提高，可使货品使用多达10%来自其他国家的产品。
香港和中国内地公司还可以考虑以墨西哥为另一生产基地，将业务迁移到该国。产品的主要含量可以从香港或中国内地采购，而实质性工作则在墨西哥进行，以符合《美墨加协定》更严格的区域价值含量新要求。
另一个可能出现的情况是，企业或会认为原产地规则过于复杂，难以做到合规，尤以汽车工业为然。大型车厂可能会认为载客车辆的关税较低，只有2.5%，属可以接受，因此在工资较低(没有时薪16美元的规定)，而且对核心、主要或辅助零部件没有本地含量要求的国家进行生产活动。这种情况会否出现尚未确定，不过香港贸易商仍有不少机会以某种方式参与这些生产活动，以减少《美墨加协定》对业务带来的不利影响。